Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 12.940377 14.790780 16.797454 19.133384 21.776023 24.671071 28.081235
2024-10-20 10.024786 12.459202 15.311009 18.891140 23.258123 28.404199 34.920888
2024-10-27 8.123093 10.657948 13.778845 17.891038 23.153307 29.647099 38.253391
2024-11-03 7.264486 9.990753 13.495025 18.309081 24.728143 32.967671 44.318669
2024-11-10 6.609521 9.468347 13.282328 18.713485 26.215302 36.174032 50.353033
2024-11-17 5.874170 8.738916 12.694518 18.516843 26.823467 38.195014 54.879341
2024-11-24 5.213942 8.033972 12.054047 18.155138 27.122991 39.751555 58.797250
2024-12-01 4.761840 7.579589 11.716422 18.174035 27.929238 42.026204 63.827154
2024-12-08 4.444893 7.292514 11.589244 18.473980 29.140994 44.927450 69.912023
2024-12-15 4.126505 6.969137 11.371994 18.604610 30.083412 47.459486 75.567724
2024-12-22 3.780286 6.566600 10.993048 18.441629 30.540700 49.258333 80.179206
2024-12-29 3.542408 6.318552 10.835187 18.609080 31.513620 51.886571 86.206605
2025-01-05 3.395997 6.218211 10.919115 19.192200 33.221556 55.815562 94.612960
2025-01-12 3.122536 5.873239 10.566757 19.016774 33.661232 57.728147 99.865958
2025-01-19 2.736245 5.290499 9.757655 17.989101 32.574480 57.042791 100.736962
2025-01-26 2.620296 5.189979 9.781984 18.416502 34.013825 60.651298 109.038914
2025-02-02 2.509974 5.089288 9.795804 18.820733 35.429618 64.287249 117.577150
2025-02-09 2.324545 4.827876 9.494482 18.623814 35.746791 66.023511 122.876193
2025-02-16 2.134298 4.539771 9.120066 18.259865 35.726912 67.150127 127.134301
2025-02-23 2.008391 4.369253 8.955362 18.278950 36.413669 69.570413 133.845490
2025-03-02 1.925329 4.279056 8.938751 18.580513 37.648464 73.047592 142.671180
2025-03-09 1.829100 4.152758 8.840512 18.711867 38.558504 75.964316 150.596627
2025-03-16 1.709178 3.965250 8.604391 18.547990 38.875262 77.774512 156.513247